FX Weekly Update: BoJ Decision Week And US Data Catch Up

Key takeaways

• US markets are closed on Monday, January 19 for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which can compress approval, funding, and settlement windows later in the week.

• Thursday is the biggest USD calendar cluster, with rescheduled BEA releases that can move rate expectations if they surprise.

• Friday brings a global “activity pulse” via flash PMIs across major economies, plus the Bank of Japan decision window for JPY.

This weekly snapshot covers the main currency drivers for January 19–25 and what finance teams typically do when both the calendar and operational cutoffs can create avoidable FX costs. It starts with a quick scan you can share internally, then breaks out the drivers by currency.

At A Glance: Currency Themes

This Week’s Event Calendar

What This Means In Plain English

This week has a “two-speed” setup.

Early week is about operational reality. With a US holiday Monday, many teams end up pushing approvals, funding, and payment initiation into fewer working hours.¹ ² That is when avoidable FX costs show up, because conversions get done under deadline pressure.

Late week is about event risk. Thursday’s rescheduled US macro releases, Friday’s flash PMIs, and the BoJ decision window create a higher chance of abrupt moves in USD and JPY, with spillover into EUR and GBP.⁶ ⁷ ⁸ ⁹

USD: Holiday Compression, Then A High-Risk Thursday

Monday’s closure matters less for “market direction” and more for your workflow. If approvals or funding get delayed, your team may end up converting and releasing payments in a narrower window on Tuesday through Thursday.¹ ²

The market-sensitive moment is Thursday, when BEA publishes rescheduled releases including GDP (Q3 updated estimate) and personal income and outlays.⁷ ⁸ Rescheduled releases can carry extra volatility simply because positioning and expectations are less settled.

What finance teams often do in weeks like this

• If you have one large conversion and flexibility, stage execution across more than one day instead of picking a single timestamp on Thursday.

• Cover what is already committed. Keep forecasts flexible. Predictability beats hero timing for most operating businesses.

• Treat “same-day” realistically. Banking cutoffs and internal approvals still apply, especially coming out of a holiday start.²

EUR: HICP Monday, Then EUR Trades The Global Rates Story

Euro area HICP data lands Monday.³ After that, EUR often reverts to trading the broader rates narrative and global risk tone. In practice, that means EUR can still move meaningfully even in a “quiet Europe” week if US yields swing around Thursday’s releases or Friday’s PMIs.⁷ ⁹

Practical operational focus

• Pay the invoices you already know are due, and avoid leaving EUR conversions to the final processing day.

• If EUR is a frequent payable currency, many teams reduce time pressure by holding working balances.

GBP: Two Midweek Data Points That Can Move Expectations

The UK calendar has two clear local volatility points: the labour market release Tuesday and CPI Wednesday.⁵

For corporates, the biggest practical risk is often the quote-to-pay gap:

• A supplier quote is issued in GBP.

• Approvals stretch a few days.

• FX gets executed under pressure right into a data window.

Simple controls that help

• Keep quote validity windows tight for GBP-priced inputs.

• If a payable is committed and dated, bring forward execution, or use predictable payment runs.

JPY: Do Not Leave JPY To Decision Day

The Bank of Japan meets Thursday and Friday.⁶ Even without a headline surprise, markets can react to guidance, forecasts, and wording, which is why JPY can feel “twitchier” into meeting weeks.

If you pay Japan-based suppliers, a low-drama approach is:

• Reduce last-day execution risk on committed invoices.

• If you run multi-vendor payment days, consider moving your JPY run earlier in the week with batch payments.

CAD: CPI Sets The Tone Monday

Canada CPI is released Monday.⁴ Even if CAD is not your largest exposure, the first big data point of the week can set the near-term tone.

If CAD is a recurring payable currency, the operational win is straightforward: avoid a workflow where you must fund, convert, and release on the same day as the data.

Friday’s “Global Pulse”: Flash PMIs

Flash PMIs arrive Friday across multiple major economies, including the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan.⁹ They are not the only data that matter, but they often move markets because they are timely and easy for investors to translate into “risk on, risk off” narratives.

For businesses, the key is not forecasting the number. It is avoiding a late-week scenario where FX becomes a deadline task right as liquidity thins into the weekend.

Where FX Costs Creep Into Cross-Border Payments

Most businesses do not lose money because they missed the perfect rate. They lose money because FX becomes a deadline task.

Common friction points:

• Converting on the day invoices are due

• Last-minute beneficiary edits that cause rework

• Manual payee entry errors that trigger delays and investigations

Process fixes that tend to pay off:

• Standardize and reuse verified beneficiary details (payment methods)

• Make payment timing predictable (scheduled payments)

• Batch supplier runs to reduce admin and errors (batch payments)

FAQ

Is staging conversions always better than converting all at once?

Not always. Staging reduces the chance of picking the worst moment, but it may not fit time-critical payables. The practical goal is usually predictability, not perfect timing.

Should we wait until after the BoJ decision to buy JPY?

If the payable is committed and dated, many teams prioritize execution certainty over market timing. BoJ weeks can be volatile even without a surprise.⁶

What is the most common holiday-week mistake?

Assuming Monday behaves like a normal working day for approvals, funding, and cutoffs, then rushing execution Tuesday onward.¹ ²

What is a simple playbook for multi-currency payables this week?

Cover the known, dated payables first. Keep forecast volumes flexible. Avoid last-day processing where you can.

Conclusion

For January 19–25, the week’s shape is clear: a US holiday start, then a higher-risk back half with rescheduled US macro releases, flash PMIs, and the BoJ decision window.¹ ⁶ ⁷ ⁹ For most finance teams, the practical win is steady execution: stage larger conversions where possible, reduce last-day processing, and align coverage to real payment dates.

How Xe Helps

Xe is not a bank, but many businesses pair Xe with their primary business bank account to manage cross-border payments and FX execution more efficiently. Xe can help you send international payments, schedule or batch pay runs (scheduled payments, batch payments), manage working balances (multi-currency accounts), and discuss risk tools when predictability matters (risk management.

Speak to an FX specialist.

The content within this blog post is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. All figures and data are based on publicly available sources at the time of writing and are subject to change. Actual conditions may vary depending on location, timing, and personal circumstances. We recommend consulting official government resources or a licensed professional for the most up-to-date and personalized guidance.

Citations

¹ New York Stock Exchange — Holidays & Trading Hours — (2026)
² Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — Legal Holiday Schedule — (2026)
³ European Central Bank — Euro Area Seasonally Adjusted HICP Release Calendar — (2026)
⁴ Statistics Canada — Release and Diffusion Dates (CPI release date list) — (2025)
⁵ Office for National Statistics — Release Calendar (UK Labour Market Jan 20, CPI Jan 21) — (2026)
⁶ Bank of Japan — Monetary Policy Meetings Schedule — (2026)
⁷ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Economic Release Schedule Updates — (2025)
⁸ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Release Schedule — (2026)
⁹ S&P Global — PMI Release Dates Calendar — (2026)
¹⁰ National Association of REALTORS® — Pending Home Sales Release Schedule — (2026)

Information from these sources was taken on January 19, 2026.