FX Weekly Update: US CPI Week and Asia Watch

Key takeaways

• US CPI (December) and US retail sales (November) are the main scheduled volatility risks this week.

• USD price action also has an added “headline layer” after reports tied to Federal Reserve leadership and credibility.

• A common playbook for businesses this week: stage larger conversions, lock known payables, and keep payment timing predictable.

This weekly snapshot covers the main currency drivers for January 12–18, and what finance teams typically do when the calendar (and headlines) can move markets quickly. It starts with a quick scan you can share internally, then breaks out the drivers by currency.

At a glance: currency themes

This week’s event calendar

What this means in plain English

• USD: This is a “macro data week.” Markets can reprice quickly if inflation or demand data surprises, and headlines can amplify moves.¹ ² ³

• EUR and GBP: Europe is relatively light on tier-one events this week, so EUR and GBP can still move a lot if US data shifts the USD backdrop.¹ ²

• JPY: With the BoJ meeting next week, JPY can become more “twitchy” even before the decision, especially if positioning gets crowded.⁶

USD: CPI week plus credibility headlines

The scheduled risk is straightforward: US CPI (Dec) lands Tuesday, followed by retail sales (Nov) and PPI (Dec) on Wednesday.¹ ²

The less scheduled risk is the headline layer. Reports tied to Federal Reserve leadership and credibility can move the dollar quickly because markets care about the reaction function, not just one data point.³ ⁴

Practical angle some teams use this week

• If you have a single large conversion, consider staging it across a couple of days instead of picking one “make-or-break” timestamp.

• If you have a dated, known payable, align the coverage to the due date rather than “hoping” to time a better level.

• Keep internal cutoffs in mind: a “same-day” instruction can still miss practical banking windows.

EUR: a quieter euro calendar, but not necessarily a quiet EUR

There is no ECB decision this week on the official calendar; the next ECB monetary policy meeting is later in the quarter.⁷

In these quieter windows, EUR often trades the broader USD story, plus any shifts in risk sentiment. That matters for businesses because “quiet calendar” can create false comfort.

Simple operational focus

• Cover the EUR invoices you already know you must pay.

• Keep flexibility on forecast amounts that can still change with volume or timing.

• Reduce last-minute scrambling by holding working balances when you pay EUR frequently (multi-currency accounts.

GBP: UK growth print is the main local signal

The UK’s monthly GDP estimate is due Thursday.⁵

GBP tends to react not just to the number, but to what it implies for the next few months of UK rate expectations. If you buy UK services or inventory, the practical risk is often the quote-to-pay gap.

Two low-drama controls

• Use

  clear quote validity windows

  on GBP-priced inputs.

• If a payable is committed and dated, consider whether staged execution or short-dated coverage makes the cost more predictable.

JPY: meeting week is next week, but the market can move early

The BoJ’s next scheduled meeting is next week per the official calendar.⁶

Even without a surprise, JPY can move quickly around changes in expectations, global risk tone, or positioning.

If you pay Japan-based suppliers

• Try not to leave known JPY invoices to the last possible day.

• If your payments track shipping/customs timelines, schedule them to realistic buffers.

Where FX costs creep into cross-border payments

Most businesses don’t lose money because they “missed the perfect rate.” They lose money because FX becomes a deadline task.

Common friction points:

• Converting on the day invoices are due (when volatility can be highest)

• Intermediary deductions that create short payments and rework

• Manual payee entry errors that trigger delays

Process fixes that tend to pay off:

• Pre-fund core currencies you use every month (multi-currency accounts)

• Schedule payments so approvals happen earlier (scheduled payments)

• Batch supplier runs to reduce admin and errors (batch payments)

What teams are doing now

• Lock the knowns: cover firm, dated payables tied to signed POs and invoices.

• Keep forecasts flexible: avoid over-committing hedges on volumes that may still change.

• Make payment runs predictable: fewer “hero moments” at month-end, fewer avoidable FX surprises.

• Clean beneficiary data once: reuse verified details to reduce failed payments and rework.

FAQ

Is staging conversions always better than converting all at once?

Not always. It’s a risk tradeoff. Staging can reduce the chance of picking the worst moment, but it may not fit if your payable is time-critical.

Should we hedge everything around CPI?

Many teams prioritize the largest and most predictable exposures first. The goal is usually predictability, not market timing.¹

What if a payment date shifts after we’ve planned the conversion?

Build realistic buffers into payment planning, especially around shipping and approvals. If you use hedging products, what’s possible depends on the instrument and terms.

Conclusion

This week is mainly about US macro data (CPI, retail sales, PPI) plus a higher-than-usual headline risk premium in USD.¹ ² ³ For most teams, the practical win is keeping execution steady: cover what you already know you must pay, avoid last-day processing where you can, and run payments on a predictable cadence.

The content within this blog post is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. All figures and data are based on publicly available sources at the time of writing and are subject to change. Actual conditions may vary depending on location, timing, and personal circumstances. We recommend consulting official government resources or a licensed professional for the most up-to-date and personalized guidance.

Citations

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Schedule of news releases (CPI, PPI, import/export prices) — (2026)

2. U.S. Census Bureau — Economic indicators release schedule (retail sales) — (2026)

3. Reuters — Report on investigation headlines impacting USD — (2026)

4. The Wall Street Journal — Coverage related to Fed leadership headline risk — (2026)

5. Office for National Statistics (UK) — Release calendar (monthly GDP estimate) — (2026)

6. Bank of Japan — Monetary Policy Meetings schedule — (2026)

7. European Central Bank — Governing Council calendars — (2026)

Information from these sources was taken on January 12, 2026.